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☆ A top Democratic pollster says low primary voter turnout in Chicago is a 'warning sign' for Biden as cities 'need to be an engine of turnout' for his reelection bid
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said Chicago's low voter turnout last week is a "warning sign." "These cities need to be engines of turnout," she recently told The Chicago Sun-Times. "It's a warning sign for Detroit, where it will matter," she continued. "It's a warning sign for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh." "These cities need to be engines of turnout," she said.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Biden, Donald Trump, wasn't, weren't, Tina Sfondeles Organizations: Chicago Sun, Times, Biden, Service, Democratic, Trump, Detroit, Philadelphia Locations: Times . Chicago, Chicago, Cook, Cook County, Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas , Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Phoenix, " Illinois, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Pennsylvania

The stop by Ms. Harris at the Planned Parenthood clinic was believed to be the first official visit by a vice president to an abortion clinic. We have to be a nation that trusts women.”Image Ms. Harris visited a Planned Parenthood clinic in St. Paul, Minn., on Thursday. Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota were almost bare — all have restricted abortion access since the overturning of Roe. But the fall of Roe upended those politics, energizing a new generation of voters energized by their support for abortion rights. “Please do understand that when we talk about a clinic such as this, it is absolutely about health care and reproductive health care.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Minn, Harris, ”, “, Jenn Ackerman, Roe, Wade, energizing, Biden, Lake, Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Ms, Undem, Mr, Paul, Sarah Traxler, Tim Walz Organizations: Minn, ., The New York Times, Democrats, Democratic, Paul Health Center, Administration, Gov, The, of Family, State Legislature, Biden Locations: St, Paul, Minnesota, . Minnesota, Iowa . Nebraska , North Dakota, South Dakota, Gaza, KFF, Democratic, Vandalia, “ Minnesota, States

☆ How the GOP’s rightward shift on immigration helps explain Trump’s primary success
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Amid widespread discontent over President Joe Biden’s management of the border, the overall electorate is moving rightward on immigration too, polls show. For now, there’s no question that hardening GOP attitudes on immigration have been critical to Trump’s strong performance through the early primaries. Then, 56% of GOP primary voters said undocumented immigrants should be offered legal status; in last month’s primary, 55% said they should be deported. Immigration ranked as the most important issue for most GOP primary voters in South Carolina, and finished close behind the economy in both Iowa and New Hampshire. McLaughlin said Trump’s dominance among the GOP primary voters most concerned about immigration encapsulates a broader reason for his early success: widespread satisfaction among Republicans about his record in office.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, What’s, “, Donald Trump, ”, Jim McLaughlin, Joe Biden, ’, Nikki Haley, Trump’s, Haley, Leah Askarinam, McLaughlin, Robert P, Jones, Charles Franklin, Adolf Hitler, ” Biden, Biden, Stephen Miller, Charlie Kirk, Miller, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Matt Barreto, Barreto, Democratic pollster, ” Barreto, Maria Cardona, Tom Suozzi, George Santos, Suozzi, Bill Clinton Organizations: CNN, GOP, Republican, Trump, Biden, Edison Research, Immigration, Former South Carolina Gov, Quinnipiac University, Survey, Religion Research Institute, Marquette Law School, Marquette, Gallup, Republicans, CBS, National Guard, Democratic, UCLA, New, Republican Rep, White, House Republicans Locations: Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin, Mexico, United States, American, Trump, Marquette, America, Texas, Celinda, Arizona, Nevada, Mexico ”, week’s State, Brownsville

☆ Haley’s voters might decide Biden’s fate in November. Here’s why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

In New Hampshire, more than 4-in-5 Haley voters said Trump would not be fit to serve again if convicted and that Biden had legitimately won. In that poll, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa said they would not vote for Trump in a general election; that number soared past three-fourths of her voters in New Hampshire. One key reason: fully 93% of all GOP-leaning voters said they disapproved of Biden’s performance as president. Madrid believes Biden’s record on immigration is the biggest obstacle to him harvesting support among the Republicans uneasy about Trump. Lake doesn’t agree that any single issue is critical for Biden with the kind of GOP voters who have rallied to Haley.

Persons: Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Haley, Biden, Joe Biden, Haley –, Trump, ”, Smith, Michael Madrid, “ Trump, “, SSRS, “ Donald Trump, that’s, Alan Abramowitz, Ron DeSantis, it’s, Democratic pollster, Biden’s, ” Madrid, Haley herself, ” Jennifer Horn, MAGA …, ” Jim McLaughlin, Trump’s, McLaughlin, Bill McInturff –, –, Lake, Jean Carroll, ’, Taylor Swift, Chris Wilson, Republican pollster, Wilson, ” Wilson, Lake doesn’t Organizations: CNN, South Carolina Republican, Trump, White, GOP, Republican, Democratic, Trump Lincoln Project, Washington Post, University of Maryland, Capitol, CBS, Republicans, NBC News, Republican Party, South, Emory University, Florida Gov, Edison Research, Haley Iowa, Monmouth University, ”, Biden, New Hampshire Republican, NBC, AP Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, California, Madrid, Washington, South Carolina, ” Madrid, McInturff, Lake, Trump

Support for abortion rights drove women to the polls during the 2022 midterm elections, delivering Democrats unexpected success. Still, Democrats believe abortion will be a key motivator for base voters and help expand their coalition. Biden aides and allies point to recent elections that have overwhelmingly shown that, when voters can choose, they have chosen to safeguard abortion rights. According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, among Democrats, nearly nine in 10 say abortion should generally be legal. But it also underscores a pervasive fear among Republican candidates and voters alike that vocalizing their desire to further restrict abortion rights in 2024 might be politically dangerous.

Persons: Donald Trump, Wade, “, Joe Biden's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Roe, ”, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden, Harris, Jill Biden, Doug Emhoff, Trump, Bill Clinton's, Timmaraju, ’ ”, Benjamin Watson, “ Roe, Dobbs, Xavier Becerra, ” Becerra, Alanna Durkin Richer, Amanda Seitz, Linley Sanders Organizations: WASHINGTON, —, Republican, Democratic, Democrats, AP VoteCast, Trump, Biden, Jackson, Health Organization, National Abortion Rights, League, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Republicans, NFL, Fox News, Health, Human Services Locations: Roe, Wisconsin, Virginia, Texas, Dobbs v, Iowa, America, California, East Coast, Boston

☆ Opinion | The Biden-Trump Rematch Is Already Here
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Belief in the lie may have buoyed some of Trump supporters’ self-esteem. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance at Democrats holding the Senate. There are, needless to say, a host of uncertainties. As a general rule, the higher these issues rank in voters’ priorities, the better Republicans do. In that respect, the success of conservatives in barring the use of race in college admissions has taken a Republican issue off the table.

Persons: Truex, Arceneaux, Mike Lux, Win, ”, Gore Organizations: Trump, ’, Republicans, Truex, Republican, Democratic Party, Electoral College, Democratic, Senate, Democrats Locations: Bush

☆ As Republican contenders start to line up for the White House in 2024, Social Security may be key issue
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Proposal for 'modern version' of Social SecurityThe Social Security plan Laffey would implement throws out the traditional approaches of tax increases or benefit cuts. Currently, workers and employers each pay 6.2% on up to $160,200 in wages toward Social Security. "It's a modern version of Social Security," Kotlikoff said. The idea of rethinking the way Social Security funds are invested has come up before. Andrew Biggs, who worked in the White House on Social Security reform at the time and who is now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, remembers the proposal did not come close to succeeding, even as Social Security still had surpluses and Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

Persons: Alex Durante, Durante, Laurence Kotlikoff, Kotlikoff, Laffey, Morgan Keegan, Steve Laffey, Ed Jones, Cranston, George W, Bush, Andrew Biggs, Biggs, Biden Organizations: iStock, Social Security, Social Security's, Lawmakers, Washington, Tax, Foundation, Social, Boston University, U.S, Senate, Republican, Afp, Getty, Wall, today's Social Security, American Enterprise Institute, Democratic, Lake Research Partners, Trump, Alafaya Locations: Cranston , Rhode Island, Rhode Island, Colorado, America, Cranston, Orlando , Florida

☆ How one DeSantis speech captured the dynamic that could decide 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The next 30 minutes of DeSantis’ speech then demonstrated how Biden might survive despite all the doubts about his performance and capabilities. In that way, DeSantis’ first swing through Iowa showed why Republicans are still at risk in 2024 from a key dynamic that dashed their hopes of a sweeping “red wave” in 2022. Many strategists in both parties believe that dynamic is most likely to recur in 2024 if the GOP nominates Trump. One reason, Republicans argue, is that the eventual nominee likely will talk about these issues less in a general election. Beset by all the difficult domestic conditions DeSantis highlighted, Biden will likely struggle straight through November 2024 to affirmatively convince a majority that his performance deserves another term.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden, Biden, DeSantis, Donald Trump, ”, Sarah Longwell, MAGA Trump, “, Trump, Chris Wilson, Republican pollster, Jesse Ferguson, SRSS, “ Biden, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W . Bush, “ DeSantis, Ferguson, don’t, –, David Kochel, Kochel, can’t, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton’s, suburbanites, Nick Gourevitch, DeSantis ’, dethroning Trump, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Biden “ Organizations: CNN, Florida Gov, Biden’s, Republicans, GOP, Trump, Republican, Longwell, Biden, White House, White, Edison Research, House, Democrats, Senate, Fox News, Walt Disney Co, Democratic, eventual Locations: Iowa, Des Moines, Biden’s America, America, Florida, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , New Hampshire , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan

☆ Democratic insiders are all over the map about whether they'd prefer DeSantis or Trump versus Biden in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Nicole Gaudiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Others want a rematch with the legally challenged Trump or say that the younger, lesser-known DeSantis would be a bigger threat to Biden. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said she prefers Trump because Biden beat him in the 2020 presidential election and will "beat him again." Trump has proven he could turn out Republican voters and win the presidency, but he's under indictment and could face even more charges. "That said, this will be a tough race no matter who the Republican nominee is, and every Democrat needs to take it extremely seriously." And both DeSantis and Trump are pushing "extreme" agendas to try and "outmaneuver the other one."

WASHINGTON — One week from Election Day, the race for Senate control remains neck and neck in an unusually volatile political environment, with small margins carrying high stakes for the future of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda and judicial nominees. Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the battle for the Senate looks like a coin-flip. “Polling for the Senate is still real close in a lot of these states.”The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving Democrats control. The FiveThirtyEight Senate projection is dead even, giving both Republicans and Democrats 50% chances of winning control. A perception that GOP control would threaten democracy is also motivating liberal-leaning voters.

☆ Jill Biden holds the key to the nation's political future as her husband weighs re-election in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Nicole Gaudiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

"Joe Biden wouldn't have run in '20 if Jill Biden had not wanted him to run and he won't run in '24 if Jill Biden doesn't want him to run," he told Insider. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden watch fireworks go off on national mall from the White House on July 4, 2022, in Washington, DC. Jill Biden divorced her first husband after five years and married Joe Biden two years later. First lady Jill Biden tours a classroom at the James Rushton Early Learning Center in Birmingham, Alabama, on April 9, 2021. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrive at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on May 18, 2022.

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